Final-Day AIP vs GMP - How Accurate Are Our Listing-Gain Calls?
We compare each final-day AIP with the GMP and the actual listing-day close. The AIP uses final-day subscription data and is most accurate around 3:00 PM. On average, it lands closer to the actual listing price than GMP.
Our Day 3 Final Calls are posted on Instagram around 3:00 PM before each IPO lists, so you can check the original AIP and GMP calls anytime.
Original Day 3 AIP & GMP posts for past IPOs
AIP vs GMP
Lower error and higher accuracy are better.
Recent IPO Listings - Head to Head
Last 12 IPOs. "AI Err" and "GMP Err" are the absolute gap vs the actual listing-day gain - lower is better. GMP is the grey-market premium quoted on the IPO close date.
| IPO | Listed | Actual | AI Pred | AI Err | GMP % | GMP Err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NG Nityas Gems & Jewellery | 2026-10-08 | +6.7% | +0% | 6.7% | +1.3% | 5.4% |
VN Vishal Nirmiti | 2026-10-08 | -2.3% | -4.3% | 2.0% | +1.8% | 4.1% |
SI Shah Investor's Home | 2026-10-06 | +2.4% | +8.5% | 6.1% | +8.4% | 6.0% |
SI SRIT India | 2026-10-06 | +13.9% | +23.1% | 9.3% | +27.7% | 13.9% |
OC Orient Cables | 2026-10-05 | +65.4% | +25.3% | 40.1% | +25.7% | 39.7% |
GG German Green Steel & Power | 2026-10-05 | +2.2% | +16.3% | 14.1% | +15.1% | 12.9% |
AC AceVector | 2026-10-05 | -11.5% | -1.1% | 10.4% | +5.6% | 17.1% |
RE Runwal Enterprises | 2026-10-05 | +0.0% | +1.2% | 1.2% | +4.9% | 4.9% |
AO A-One Steels | 2026-10-01 | +12.4% | +10.4% | 1.9% | +8.6% | 3.7% |
MO Moneyview | 2026-10-01 | +61.8% | +58.3% | 3.5% | +44.1% | 17.6% |
AI ArMee Infotech | 2026-09-30 | +0.0% | +2.1% | 2.1% | +5.3% | 5.3% |
AI Adroit Industries | 2026-09-30 | +75.4% | +26.1% | 49.3% | +27.6% | 47.8% |
Year-over-Year Accuracy
Full Prediction Log
All 96 listed IPOs in our dataset, newest first. New listings are auto-ingested from our scraper pipeline.
| IPO Name | List Date | Exchange | AI Pred | GMP % | Actual | AI Err | Accuracy | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NG Nityas Gems & Jewellery | 2026-10-08 | Mainboard | +0% | +1.3% | +6.7% | 6.7% | Miss | |
VN Vishal Nirmiti | 2026-10-08 | Mainboard | -4.3% | +1.8% | -2.3% | 2.0% | Hit | |
SI Shah Investor's Home | 2026-10-06 | Mainboard | +8.5% | +8.4% | +2.4% | 6.1% | Miss | |
SI SRIT India | 2026-10-06 | Mainboard | +23.1% | +27.7% | +13.9% | 9.3% | Miss | |
OC Orient Cables | 2026-10-05 | Mainboard | +25.3% | +25.7% | +65.4% | 40.1% | Miss | |
GG German Green Steel & Power | 2026-10-05 | Mainboard | +16.3% | +15.1% | +2.2% | 14.1% | Miss | |
AC AceVector | 2026-10-05 | Mainboard | -1.1% | +5.6% | -11.5% | 10.4% | Miss | |
RE Runwal Enterprises | 2026-10-05 | Mainboard | +1.2% | +4.9% | +0.0% | 1.2% | Hit | |
AO A-One Steels | 2026-10-01 | Mainboard | +10.4% | +8.6% | +12.4% | 1.9% | Hit | |
MO Moneyview | 2026-10-01 | Mainboard | +58.3% | +44.1% | +61.8% | 3.5% | Hit | |
AI ArMee Infotech | 2026-09-30 | Mainboard | +2.1% | +5.3% | +0.0% | 2.1% | Hit | |
AI Adroit Industries | 2026-09-30 | Mainboard | +26.1% | +27.6% | +75.4% | 49.3% | Miss | |
SI Swastika Infra | 2026-09-30 | Mainboard | +2.3% | +2.2% | +8.1% | 5.8% | Miss | |
EC Elevate Campuses | 2026-09-30 | Mainboard | +0% | +0.3% | -1.9% | 1.9% | Hit | |
VG Varmora Granito | 2026-09-29 | Mainboard | -1.3% | +0.0% | +4.7% | 6.0% | Miss |
How Final-Day AIP Compares With GMP
What GMP actually is
Grey Market Premium is an unofficial, off-market quote of what traders are willing to pay for allotted shares before listing day. It reflects hype and liquidity - not fundamentals.
We compare the final-day AIP with GMP because both are available when investors make their decision. Final-day subscription data feeds the AIP, and 3:00 PM on the final day is the best time to analyze the IPO because the data is more mature and the AIP works best around this time.
What our model uses
- Subscription velocity by category (retail / NII / QIB / anchor)
- Float size, peer-group multiple, and sector float absorption
- Fundamentals: revenue CAGR, PAT margin, ROE, debt/equity
- Issue structure: fresh issue vs OFS, anchor lock-in coverage
- Market regime: Nifty trend, VIX, and recent-listing performance
How we score accuracy
- Hit: prediction within 10% of actual listing gain
- Miss: prediction more than 10% off
- Direction: did we call gain vs loss correctly
- Final-day AIP uses mature subscription data from around 3:00 PM; GMP is captured on the IPO close date
We're better, not perfect
The AI misses sometimes - it famously under-called Bajaj Housing Finance (+114% actual vs ~+95% pred) and Premier Energies (+120% vs ~+103%). Runaway hype listings are hard to model. But on average it lands far closer to reality than GMP, and new listings are added to this dashboard the day after listing via our scraper pipeline, with no cherry-picking. We also publish our AIP and GMP numbers on Instagram, so users can independently verify them.